One Movie Lover’s Fearless Forecast for Oscar Night

By Turner Unruh

I love to be entertained. I think everybody needs entertainment in their lives. Most households are huge fans of the Super Bowl. At my house, we love the Oscars.

I started caring about the Oscars when I was in seventh grade. That year, “The Departed” won best picture. Two years later, I became obsessed with the Oscars, and since, I have accurately predicted every best picture winner, months before the awards show—”Slumdog Millionaire,” “The Hurt Locker,” “The King’s Speech.” Last year when most observers believed “The Social Network” was going to win, I selected “The King’s Speech.” How is it that I can pick the Oscar winners but have not voted for the correct “American Idol” winner since Season 6?

Actress in a Supporting Role

Bernice Bejo (“The Artist”); Jessica Chastain (“The Help”); Melissa McCarthy (“Bridesmaids”); Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”); and Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)

Should/Will Win: Octavia Spencer

Her portrayal of Minnie, the feisty African-American maid in a white household in 1960s Jackson, Miss., should earn Spencer her first Oscar. Spencer’s breakthrough performance is moving and heartfelt. Her character takes many risks and does not back down to the racism of the time even though her disobedience is dangerous. Spencer clearly contributes to the great acting ensemble in the film.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh (“My Week With Marilyn”); Jonah Hill (“Moneyball”); Nick Nolte (“Warrior”); Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”); and Max Von Sydow (“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)

Should/Will win: Christopher Plummer

If there is one lock in the acting categories, it should be Christopher Plummer. In a more than 50-year career, this is only his second nomination (his first was for “The Last Station” in 2009). Plummer steals the show in “Beginners”; he was both humorous and dramatic in his performance as Hal, a widower who comes out of the closet late in life to enjoy what little time he has left.

The likeliest upset would be Kenneth Branagh for “My Week With Marilyn.” Branagh’s performance as Sir Laurence Olivier was spot on.

Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”); Viola Davis (“The Help”); Rooney Mara (“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”); Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”); and Michelle Williams (“My Week With Marilyn”)

Should Win: Meryl Streep

With a record 17 Oscar nominations and winning twice—but none since “Sophie’s Choice” in 1982—Streep has had many great roles but few as important as her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s first female prime minister. She expertly plays Thatcher from her rise to prime minister to her current age. Streep may be the only actress who could pull off this part as effectively.

Will win: Viola Davis

“The Help” was the highest-grossing film nominated for Best Picture, which seemingly influences the voters. The academy also loves honoring breakout performances.

Actor in a Leading Role

Demian Bichir (“A Better Life”); George Clooney (“The Descendants”); Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”); Gary Oldman (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”); and Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”)

Should/Will Win: George Clooney

If Clooney wins this Oscar, it would not be about his good looks or popularity—though that helps. He gives his best performance to date, a sincere, believable and sometimes humorous portrayal of a father who reconnects with his daughters through a family tragedy.

Clooney is nearly a lock…but don’t dismiss Dujardin.

Best Director

Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”); Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”); Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”); Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”); and Terrence Malick (“The Tree Of Life”)

Should Win: Martin Scorsese

Inspired by his young son, Scorsese leaves behind the tough crime dramas and directs this complex 3D film, but still manages to include some of his trademark qualities and showcases his versatility as a director. Unlike many 3D adventures, it has all the elements of a great movie. Although “Hugo” was my third favorite film of the year, it is Scorsese’s work that stands out.

Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius

The award for best director and best picture often goes to the same film, making Hazanavicius the favorite to win. He deserves recognition for beautifully reviving a genre that is nearly extinct.

Best Picture

Should Win: “The Descendants”

There are nine movies in this category, but only three have a realistic chance to win. Unlike “The Artist,” “The Descendants” deals with real-life issues such as death, betrayal and regret. The entire cast of the film is outstanding. Matt King (Clooney) learns his wife is in a coma and is forced to tell his daughters. Matt, who refers to himself as “the backup parent,” must now become the main adult in their life. One daughter, Alex, (Shailene Woodley) is brilliant. Since 2008, Woodley has played Amy on the worst drama series currently on TV (“The Secret Life of the American Teenager”). But in this film, it’s hard to tell she is the same actress. Amara Miller also plays the younger daughter, Scottie, wonderfully.

Will Win: “The Artist”

The film was flawless throughout. I could not leave my seat. Set in the late 1920s, “The Artist” is a black-and-white silent film that tells the story of a silent film star who cannot make the transition to talking pictures. Eventually, a young, beautiful actress who was an extra in one of his big movies overshadows him. The movie follows the actor’s journey through his rough time. At times, the film is unrealistic, but in an era of blockbusters relying on special effects, it is great to see audiences and critics still appreciate films that could have been made generations ago. “Hugo,” a unique family adventure film, has the most nominations as well as Martin Scorsese’s influence, which has wide appeal, giving it an outside chance.

Pleasantville High School senior Turner Unruh is loves watching good movies.