Home Guru: My Crazy Theory About Predicting the Housing Recovery
One of my favorite quotes ever is that of John Kenneth Galbraith, the great economist who said, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology respectable.”
Well, here’s a theory for projecting the housing/economic forecast that may have you scratching your head. I predict that the economy and housing in particular will rebound more quickly than we might expect, based on the fact that we are starting to care a little more about saving our historic homes. A disconnect you say? Let me explain.
Originally I studied to be a museum curator, expecting to enjoy a tranquil career contemplating how the future might learn from the past, as the Colonial Williamsburg slogan states. Instead I got into the rough and tumble public relations business, and eventually ventured into real estate, another business which I would hardly call laid back.
But all through my zigzag career path, I kept my eye on the antiques market and interest in historic preservation, noting that whenever there was a recessionary period, public sentiment over saving the past waned. But interest always seemed to pick up again when the economy was on the verge of rebounding.
I started noticing the connection of which I speak during the recession of 1973-1975, then again in the early 1980s, and it has been most noticeable in the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007 through 2009.
In our area, a report in 2008 stated that one of our highest profile historic houses in Westchester, the Miller house of 1738 which served as Washington’s headquarters in White Plains, had serious structural problems and needed immediate repair. But it wasn’t until 2010 that the Board of Legislators passed a $1.3 million bond act to renovate it.
In my town of Yorktown, we seem to be pulling out of the doldrums about saving our historic houses. While in 2011 we lost one of our most visible landmarks, the Melbourne Farmhouse on our main road was demolished by its owner, the Yorktown Central School District, despite valiant attempts by preservationists to save it. However that public outcry resulted in the re-establishment of a Landmarks Preservation Commission of which I am a member.
And the situation is improving. We’ve just won half a battle with the Knapp house, another 18th century structure here, where the kind developer, Neil DeLuca, has allowed us to save significant details of the house as it is dismantled. And, much to my great satisfaction, since it is my listing, we were able to save the 1830 Adams-Bernstein house by selling it to Mark Franzoso, the high-profile contractor, who has promised to restore it.
So, now that we’re starting to save our history again, I promise, look for a brighter future for the housing market and the economy overall. It’s all right here in my trusty crystal ball.
Bill Primavera is a licensed Realtor® associated with Coldwell Banker and a lifestyles columnist who writes regularly as The Home Guru. For those seeking advice on home maintenance or who want to buy or sell a home, visit his website, www.PrimaveraHomes.com, or call him directly at 914-522-2076.
