Why the Brooklyn Nets Will Win the Atlantic Division in 2017-18
By Jeff Ahn
Yes, you read the headline correctly! I am referring to the same Nets that finished last season with the NBA’s worst record of 20 wins and 62 losses. Before you dismiss this column as some Nostradamus-like prophecy from some super-delusional Nets fan, here are some logical reasons why this prophecy can materialize. To win the Atlantic division, the Nets will likely need to win 50 or more games (Note: The Celtics won this division during the prior season with a record of 53-29 and the Raptors were just behind with a record of 51-31). So, how could a team possibly improve by 30+ wins in just one season? Here are some thoughts to noodle on…
• The GM, Sean Marks, set expectations low at the start of last season indicating the franchise was measuring success by development and not by Wins-Losses, and they weren’t kidding. The Nets put no pressure to rush key players back from injury (ala Jeremy Lin’s hamstring injuries last season or star rookie Caris Levert’s delayed start). This was genius, as it took all the pressure off the team to actually secure wins, and allowed the team to showcase Brook Lopez’s hidden talent of launching the three ball from deep (which ultimately landed us D’angelo Russell for this upcoming season) and also allowed youngsters like Spencer Dinwiddie, Sean Kilpatrick, Quincy Acy and Joe Harris to get real minutes to develop.
• Last year’s record is not indicative of a healthy Nets team – Jeremy Lin missed extended time due to hamstring injuries on two separate occasions last season which resulted in two rough stretches for the Nets where the team went 4-13 and also 1-25. Upon Lin’s return to the starting lineup with full minutes, the Nets were close to a .500 team. Bottomline, the Nets development objective of not signing another polished point guard and instead letting guys like Sean Kilpatrick, Isaiah Whitehead and Spencer Dinwiddie learn on-the-job was achieved. This year, the Nets also have D’angelo Russell to play point guard in case there is another injury to Lin.
• Head coach, Kenny Atkinson’s motion offense actually works! The Nets led the NBA last season in pace, which means the team had the most possessions per game at 104.9 (just ahead of the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets, both at 103.6). The difference was, both the Warriors and Rockets finished #1 and #2 in scoring due to higher efficiency (and better players), but the Nets played a similar style with a lot of run-and-gun, passes, and long range shots. The Nets finished 11th in the league in total points, which wasn’t bad considering the team’s point guard situation last season.
• To enhance this motion offense, the Nets added more players that can drill the three ball, with the main additions being Russell and Allen Crabbe. Crabbe, who wasn’t able to get starter minutes because he was behind Damian Lillard and C. J. McCollum in Portland, should break out this season, as he had the second best 3-point field goal percentage last season at 44%. He has enough range to hit very deep three balls and will be strongly encouraged to shoot in this motion offense.
• The Nets depth – Because of the fast pace offense the Nets run, and the flurry of injuries from last season, expect the Nets to run deeper than most teams where close to 12 members will get quality minutes and stay sharp throughout the season. This is especially critical in today’s NBA where there are so many back-to-back games (Nets have 14 back-to-back games on the schedule this season) that result in a poor product on the second night of back-to-back. The Nets will also be better suited to punish opponents that run a smaller rotation on the second night of their back-to-back.
• The Nets added length – We talked about the offense, but the bigger problem last season was the team’s porous defense. The departure of legendary Net Brook Lopez (sad to see) will be filled with Timofey Mozgov who can bang down low, if necessary, but the Nets have versatile guys like Trevor Booker and Quincy Acy who can run and fill in at the “5.” One of the more intriguing parts of this upcoming season will be to see how much of an impact the 19-year-old 7 footer, Jarrett Allen, will play this upcoming season (he is still growing and has a wing-span of 7’6”). If the Nets want to go long, they can as most of the roster consists of players who are 6’5” to 6’8.” Even the Nets backup point guard, Spencer Dinwiddie, is 6’6” and can create length issues for the opposing teams’ quick point guards.
• Does it still seem unlikely that this squad can out-win the star-studded Celtics or the perennial Eastern conference contending Raptors or the lottery pick rich 76ers? While all three of these teams have potential to win the division, consider the following for each.
o Celtics – Added two stars who have never played together in Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving (there is usually a transition period) and are relying on two young players with limited NBA experience in Jaylen Brown and rookie Jayson Tatum to fill the void. Obviously the team has a great coach in Brad Stevens and have some remaining members of last year’s squad with Al Horford and Marcus Smart, but this is not a deep team. The loss of three starters in Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and Avery Bradley as well as a key big man off the bench in Kelly Olynck leaves a lot of chemistry questions for this upcoming season. Additional fun fact is that Kyrie Irving won only 21, 24, and 33 games before Lebron joined the Cavs.
o Raptors – They should be solid once again, but Kyle Lowry is a year older at the point guard position, and the team lost an effective backup point guard in Cory Joseph to free agency and a veteran presence in DeMarre Carroll (who is now a Brooklyn Net). Expect the Raptors to be tough, but not better than last season.
o 76ers – Joel Embiid will have a minutes restriction, and there will be some heavy reliance on star rookies. It’s hard to predict the chemistry between recent #1 draft picks Markel Fultz and Ben Simmons but it looks like the plan is for Fultz to come off the bench to allow Simmons to handle the rock more. I think the addition of J. J. Reddick was a good one, and the 76ers may finally be dangerous. But this group is no guarantee and there are a lot of question marks, not to mention injury volatility.
o Knicks – Phil Jackson left a few mines as a departing gift for the Knicks with the Carmelo situation and with this year’s draft pick with Frank Ntilikina. The Knicks are where the Nets were a few years ago.
• Are there other similar success stories? The two that come to mind are as follows:
o The 2013-2014 Atlanta Hawks team that won 60 games, while Kenny Atkinson was an assistant coach (and Demarre Carroll was a key player). The year before, the Hawks only won 38 games. Development was a key component, with one of the major players being Kyle Korver to space the floor in a motion offense. Note: Korver led the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage 3 out of 5 years while with the Hawks in that motion offense. Don’t be surprised if somebody like Joe Harris has a significant rise in his long range shooting percentage or if Allen Crabbe explodes this year and tops his previous year’s mark of 44% as these players will get plenty of open looks this season.
o The 2012-2013 Golden State Warriors team won 47 games with a healthy Stephen Curry. In the prior year, the team won only 23 games as Curry was plagued with an ankle injury that allowed him to play just 26 games. Similar to the loss of Lin, the record did not reflect the team’s capabilities in the prior season. Following this up, the 2015-16 Warriors team took small ball to a whole new level with 67 wins under Steve Kerr, which runs a similar motion offense with five position-less players that can all handle the rock, and launch the three-ball. The squad’s best unit had heights of 6’3”, 6’6”, 6’7”, 6’7” and 6’8” for Curry, Iguodala, Thompson, Green and Harrison Barnes. This is not dissimilar from the most athletic five the Nets can offer at 6’3”, 6’5”, 6’6”, 6’7” and 6’7” in Lin, Russell, Crabbe, Levert and Hollis-Jefferson.
• The Nets are also fortunate to enjoy a very soft schedule to start the season which should allow for further player development early on and can build confidence with this young unit. The Nets looked terrific in the pre-season, going 3-1, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they start the season 4-0, and win at least 7 or 8 of their first ten games (Pacers, Magic, Knicks, Hawks, etc.).
For the record, the Vegas odds for the Nets to win the Atlantic division were 250-1 last week, and have now shifted to 200-1, so if you think this column is just absolute madness, you are still in the overwhelming majority. But, if you are a betting man, the “1” is an intriguing number. Let the NBA games begin!
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